Live @ Sax.net

On my way back from MIX10 I’ve had a chance to reflect on both the hype and substance related to the Windows Phone 7 Series. Except for the terrible product name, Microsoft is clearly doing all the right things.

There are a few pieces missing from the puzzle, though. Below are a few things I learned during a several (non-NDA) conversations I’ve had with people at MIX. Some of these issues have also been confirmed online.

• No Socket Class — Currently the only way to communicate is through Windows Communications Framework or pure HTTP calls. The practical implications are no chat or mail apps, limited multi-player communications.
• No Local Database — This is problematic. Storing data in a local database is essential, not only for applications that can work offline, but more importantly for regular applications to cache information, increase performance and reduce network traffic. Application vendors could include their own database engine (such as C# SqlLite) but if everyone starts doing this it will only create bloat, increase memory usage, and delay application startup.
• No In-App Purchase — This is no biggie, in my opinion. Aside from a few content-centric apps, the in-app purchase in the iPhone AppStore has only been used for semi-trial versions. The trial scenario is already supported by Windows Phone.
• No Copy & Paste — Call me superstitious, but I believe missing copy and paste in the initial version is a prerequisite for launching a successful mobile platform (look at Blackberry and iPhone vs. Newton and Palm Pre).
• No Component Class — The Component class lets you create non-visible components that use the Visual Studio designer to define relationships with other components, change properties, and quickly create event handlers, all without coding. It’s not essential but very nice to have if you’re interested in building reusable, easy to integrate components.
• No Component Licensing – The lack of a LicenseProvider class means there is no standard mechanism for component vendors to license their components. Third party components give Microsoft a huge competitive advantage over other platforms, and it would be a shame if this opportunity is wasted in the mobile platform.

I was told that the Windows 7 Phone project was started only a year ago. The team has made truly remarkable progress and it’s no surprise that there are a few pieces missing. Hopefully many of these issues will be addressed before the final release.

One more thing: The Windows Phone OS update mechanism will be driven by Microsoft, not the individual carriers or device manufacturers. This will allow new versions to be deployed very quickly and let the platform to evolve at a very rapid pace.

I’ve seen the future and it is murder. Who’s the victim? Your PC.

Let me explain:

Windows 7 Phone Series is clearly awesome.

It’s well designed and easy to develop for. Most importantly, it creates accountability for the user experience: you’ll know exactly which application is culpable if speed or battery life go down. With a tap or two you’ll completely obliterate the guilty app from your device. Both adding and removing apps and content is simple, quick, and risk-free. The UI is simple, modern and consistent.

The iPad is clearly awesome.

An affordable device that feels luxurious and lets you do everything that’s important to you related to words, music, pictures, and video. The iPad will become at least as popular as the iPhone. It’ll be a new platform for apps and content to thrive on.

A Tablet edition of Windows 7 Phone Series is inevitable.

It’s super easy for Microsoft to do this, and OEM partners will be begging for it. Because of the way the OS is designed, all the troubles that plague users of regular Windows will just vanish. The result will be a device that is so much better than any PC in everything that matters: faster, safer, dramatically more battery life, with a beautiful and consistent UI. Also, easier to support for carriers and manufacturers. It will kill the PC.

The new application platform will be something much simpler than a traditional PC. In many ways, the current PC is still a hobby device: you have to become an expert (or hire one) to simply use and maintain it. The iPad and the Windows Phone Series tablets will change that.

This change will have several important implications:

The app is the new website

The iPhone appstore has proven that people love apps if they can trust them. There will be literally millions of apps, they’ll all be free or very cheap. And like websites, lots of them will be terrible, and some will become indispensable.

Apps and content will blend.

Books, magazines, and movies. They’re all coming to life. Books are becoming interactive. Movies become games. Even radio shows (like This American Life) are turning into apps. Newspapers, magazines, and news TV networks are reinventing themselves. This is all happening because apps have become as easy and safe to install (and remove) as content.

A big gatekeeper battle is looming.

iTunes, Amazon Kindle, Windows Store, studios, publishers, and all the phone carriers will be waging an epic battle for a piece of the app/content pie. This is where Microsoft has an edge over Apple. Remember the All Things D interview where Jobs said he admired Microsoft’s ability to partner and wished Apple had that more in their DNA? He was right, and it’s still true. While Apple will continue to have a mostly adversarial relationship with many of its business partners, Microsoft will figure out a way for everyone in their eco-system to make money.

Forget Android and Chromium.

Google will never be dominant as a platform company. Android has many of the problems of desktop Windows and without apps Chromium offers too little. There’s no room for a #3 in a drag race. Google will continue to be enormously successful is its core business as a match maker between people, information, and merchants. RIM/Blackberry is the wild card.

This trend is unstoppable. The era of tinkering will soon be over. Computing is for techies. Personal computing is dead. From now on, it’s purely personal.

The first paragraph in an article from today’s Financial Times:

” Microsoft has had discussions with News Corp over a plan that would involve the media company’s being paid to “de-index” its news websites from Google, setting the scene for a search engine battle that could offer a ray of light to the newspaper industry. “

Nobody is paying anyone to de-index anything.

What really happened was that Murdoch said “Hey, Google is making money off our WSJ news content. They better start paying or we’ll block them.” Google doesn’t want to pay because if they start paying the WSJ they have to start paying everyone.

If Microsoft offers the WSJ payment for letting customers search their content, they’re just trying to make Bing a better product. It’s pro-competitive, not anti-competitive. Yet for some reason the Financial Times, a WSJ competitor, is spinning this as if Microsoft is paying the WSJ to exclude Google.

Murdoch is blazing the path to give newspapers a revenue model that may allow them to survive. If Bing and the WSJ make a search deal, Google’s stock will fall because the free party will be over. Newspaper company stocks will start rising because their papers may have a future again.

Interesting Times! (only a little bit of pun intended)